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You've noticed. We've noticed too.
Your kopi at the kopitiam costs a little more than it did six months ago. Your bag of beans at the supermarket feels heavier on the wallet. And if you've been visiting specialty cafes lately, that $7 filter has quietly become $8, sometimes more, with no announcement and no real explanation.
We want to talk about it. Not to alarm you, and not to excuse anyone. Just to share what we know, because we think you deserve the full picture.
THE NUMBERS, PLAINLY
US retail coffee prices are up 29% year-on-year as of April 2026, an all-time record high since tracking began in 1980.
Here in Singapore, dozens of neighbourhood kopitiams have raised prices by 10 to 30 cents a cup since the start of the year. A specialty black coffee now typically runs $5 to $7. A white, $6 to $9.
The increases are across the board: hawker stalls, kopitiams, specialty cafes, and supermarket shelves.
Coffee prices
WHY THIS IS HAPPENING?
The short version: the two countries that grow most of the world's coffee, Brazil and Vietnam, both had historically bad harvests in 2025. Brazil was hit by drought and flooding. Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, was flattened by typhoons. Less coffee, same demand, and prices move.
Then came tariffs. The US placed a 46% rate on Vietnamese imports, adding pressure on every roaster buying from those origins. Freight costs climbed. So did labour, packaging, and energy, especially here. The Foochow Coffee Restaurant and Bar Merchants Association noted that Singapore coffee shop operators have faced a 20% increase in various costs since the start of 2026, with electricity bills continuing to rise.
The price increases are real. And they are not coming from nowhere.
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"Coffee has arguably been underpriced relative to its production complexity for much of the past two decades. What's happening now is aligning price more honestly with cost."
We find that worth sitting with. Specialty coffee, the kind grown with care, processed with intention, sourced transparently, has always carried a real cost of production. Drought mitigation. Frost damage recovery. Higher wages for workers. Expensive logistics. These have always existed. For a long time, the supply chain absorbed them quietly. Now it cannot.
This is uncomfortable. But it is also honest.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SMALL CAFES
The places most exposed are not the chains. They are the coffee shops your neighbourhood relies on: the uncle at the hawker centre who has been pulling the same cup for fifteen years, and the small specialty cafe running on tight margins and genuine love for the craft.
Many are absorbing what they can. Some are raising prices quietly, by 10 cents here, 20 cents there, hoping you won't notice too much. A few have put up honest signs. Most are just trying to stay open.
We are grateful, always, to be part of a community that understands this. When you buy a bag of beans, visit a café, or order a cup you didn't strictly need, you are, in a small way, part of what keeps this alive.
Not every cup needs to be justified. But we hope this one feels a little different now that you know what's in it.
With love,
The folks at Prodigal
